Post Stage Nine Predictions

4 comments | July 18th, 2007 | Trackback

I originally posted this as a comment to my “What’s Discovery Doing?” post below. But it is very long and I would like to know what others are thinking at this stage, so I here it is as a new thread.

After seeing yesterday’s stage and listening to the post-stage interview with Levi, I am fairly well convinced that my earlier guess was accurate. Why else would Popovych be grinning from ear to ear at the finish after having been dropped by the GC contenders on the last leg of the stage?

The Versus announcers (being as honest as they can but still trying to keep the US audience’s interest) report that Levi is “saving himself” for the Pyrenees where he thinks the inclines better suit his riding style. I greatly appreciate Levi and all he brings to the sport and to his team and what he has done to promote cycling interest in the US, but I have yet to see that he is the guy who can take this race on his shoulders.

I looked back at the prologue results. Guess what. Candador finished 15th. He was 35 seconds behind Cancellera and 5 seconds better than Leipheimer. Unfortunately what we saw yesterday suggests Contador does not know how to descend and/or has not yet developed the instincts to win a three week race. But he has revealed himself to be a threat to the real contenders in this race who must be taken seriously.

Barloworld made its statement yesterday (Tuesday) with Soler’s ride. That kid did not even look tired when he finished yesterday, but he is almost 7 minutes off the lead and about 3 minutes behind the other primary contenders. I don’t think he or Contador will be allowed to take off again.

It looks like Levi can minimize his losses against the GC contenders. If he is able to win a stage, that will be great. I do not see him winning the race. Popovych is too far down (8′16″ off the lead) to be a GC threat. That leaves Guseve or Contador as a potential threat for Discovery. Gusev was the best young rider in the Prologue who held onto the White Jersey in the flat stages. Beyond that he’s done little other than support, even in the breaks.

I think Discovery has to ride for the KOM Polka Dot Jersey with Contador. If he can win that, Discovery will be way ahead of what they did in the tour last year. He has to be considered a serious threat for the White Jersey too. That would be a real bonus.

Finally, if Rabobank wearies on from protecting the Yellow Jersey on the flat stages and Rasmussen becomes conflicted (wondering whether he can preserve the Yellow and not wanting to lose the Polka Dot), the GC will go up for grabs.

If that happens, the other legitimate contenders at this point appear to include Valverde, Mayo, Evans, Sastre and Kloeden. (I don’t think Moreau can survive the Time Trial.) I don’t think Rasmussen will crack, but I don’t think he can win enough time in the mountains to wear yellow on the final podium. So at this point I’ll put my money as follows:

Valverde - Yellow
Rasmussen - Polka Dot
Contador - White

I’ll pick Discovery to win the Team Classification. They will continue to ride Levi Conservatively and will not blow out all their Domestiques trying to get him over the line first so their second and third times will be better.

I think that result, plus putting Contador in the Polka Dot Jersey are the real objectives of Team Discovery at this point. Riding the race that way also gives Levi a CHANCE to win enough time in a big mountain stage if Rasmussen and Valverde falter to have an outside shot at the yellow.

There, my money’s in. What do you think? Sarge? Joe? Are you guys still out there?