Awesome Also-Rans Terrorize Tour

By Ashton | Permalink | 1 comment | July 23rd, 2007 | Trackback

No one picked Michael Rasmussen and Alberto Contador to be the two riders trying to establish dominance over one another (and each failing) to determine which of the two would win this year’s Tour de France. But there they are!

After Saturday’s time trial I certainly do not expect Rasmussen to lose four or five minutes to the likes of Cadel Evans, Levi Leipheimer or Andreas Kloeden. It could happen, but it does not seem likely. Nor do I expect any of those men to be able to take that type of time back from Rasmussen in the Pyrenees. So that means the only real competition remaining for the Yellow Jersey has to be Alberto Contador who climbed aboard the Discovery Team bus 2′23″ behind the Yellow Jersey after todays trek through the mountains.

Contador’s first time trial was about 90 seconds faster than Rasmussen’s. Cadel Evans was 2′41″ faster, but he now is a full four minutes behind Rasmussen in the GC. Leipheimer is almost 5 1/2 minutes down and barely beat Rasmussen in the first TT.

Only two real mountain stage remain. Levi does not have the legs to beat Rasmussen on the final climb of any given day. Levi will have to establish and maintain a lead to beat him. Cadel Evans still has a legitimate shot at winning this race, but he has not been able to do anything on the climbs either. Kloeden also has a chance to win this race in the final TT, but he is farther behind than Levi.

That leaves Contador as the only man who can take the Yellow Jersey from Rasmussen. If you were Johan Bruyneel, what would you do?

Before proceeding, please let me make one thing perfectly clear. I will never know enough about cycling to be qualified to drive Johan to the post-race awards banquet. He is a consummate professional and I am just a fan. Whatever he decides, he was right. But I think they have to find a way to attack Rasmussen en masse if they are going to win this Tour and that Contador has to be the guy; not Levi. I suppose we shall see over the next few days.

No matter who wins, this continues to be a most enjoyable tour (for everyone but the injured and the GC favorites). Rasmussen and his team have demonstrated themselves more than worthy of the Yellow Jersey. Evans has ridden a tough, smart race; he’s just come up a bit short so far. Kloeden retains an outside shot. (He would have been closer had he not helped Vino in a couple of stages.) But unless Contador can force Rasmussen to exhaust himself beyond his recoup capacity, I do not see anyone else having any chance at all.

Finally, Vinokourouv has shown us how a championship caliber bike rider behaves. Perhaps he should have handed the team hopes to Kloeden a few days earlier. (Perhaps he really did. We may never know.) But every time the viewers have counted him out Vino has jumped up swinging. I suspect he might be that man that no one wants to meet in a dark alley. Bravo, Vino!

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